User blog:Plankton5165/Election Night 2016: ThePlankton5165's prediction!

Alright, I'm gonna share and explain my prediction for the 2016 election, which begins tonight at 7:00 pm EST, 4 pm on the Pacific Time Zone.

So, before we reveal my prediction for the 2016 election, we just reveal stats from PMB, right?

PMB Forecasts (Republicans' chances of winning)
R means regular (the regular forecast).

N means now (if the election was held the day of).
 * 8/11 - R - 78% - N - 33%
 * 8/12 - R - 78% - N - 38%
 * 8/13 - R - 87% - N - 40%
 * 8/14 - R - 87% - N - 42%
 * 8/15 - R - 89% - N - 34%
 * 8/16 - R - 94% - N - 40%
 * 8/17 - R - 89% - N - 40%
 * 8/18 - R - 95% - N - 38%
 * 8/19 - R - 96% - N - 42%
 * 8/20 - R - 98% - N - 48%
 * 8/21 - R - 97% - N - 60%
 * 8/22 - R - 97% - N - 54%
 * 8/23 - R - 97% - N - 57%
 * 8/24 - R - 96% - N - 47%
 * 8/25 - R - 91% - N - 42%
 * 8/26 - R - 94% - N - 57%
 * 8/27 - R - 96% - N - 62%
 * 8/28 - R - 97% - N - 60%
 * 8/29 - R - 98% - N - 56%
 * 8/30 - R - 98% - N - 48%
 * 8/31 - R - 98% - N - 57%
 * 9/1 - R - 98% - N - 66%
 * 9/2 - R - 94% - N - 45%
 * 9/3 - R - 98% - N - 54%
 * 9/4 - R - 99% - N - 65%
 * 9/5 - R - 99% - N - 72%
 * 9/6 - R - 98% - N - 56%
 * 9/7 - R - 99% - N - 74%
 * 9/8 - R - 99% - N - 78%
 * 9/9 - R - 91% - N - 38%
 * 9/10 - R - 98% - N - 37%
 * 9/11 - R - 99% - N - 66%
 * 9/12 - R - 99% - N - 81%
 * 9/13 - R - 99% - N - 88%
 * 9/14 - R - 99% - N - 90%
 * 9/15 - R - 99% - N - 93%
 * 9/16 - R - 99% - N - 88%
 * 9/17 - R - 99% - N - 91%
 * 9/18 - R - 99% - N - 76%
 * 9/19 - R - 96% - N - 69%
 * 9/20 - R - 95% - N - 65%
 * 9/21 - R - 99% - N - 78%
 * 9/22 - R - 95% - N - 56%
 * 9/23 - R - 94% - N - 51%
 * 9/24 - R - 94% - N - 63% (98% debate win, 96% debate crush)
 * 9/25 - R - 99% - N - 55% (99% debate win, 98% debate crush)
 * 9/26 - R - 92% - N - 64%
 * 9/27 - R - 77% - N - 31%
 * 9/28 - R - 74% - N - 28%
 * 9/29 - R - 80% - N - 27%
 * 9/30 - R - 77% - N - 28%
 * 10/1 - R - 78% - N - 32%
 * 10/2 - R - 70% - N - 36%
 * 10/3 - R - 68% - N - 34%
 * 10/4 - R - 60% - N - 31%
 * 10/5 - R - 68% - N - 45%
 * 10/6 - R - 62% - N - 38%
 * 10/7 - R - 77% - N - 64%
 * 10/8 - R - 70% - N - 56%
 * 10/9 - R - 76% - N - 62%
 * 10/10 - R - 59% - N - 34%
 * 10/11 - R - 41% - N - 37%
 * 10/12 - R - 55% - N - 38%
 * 10/13 - R - 72% - N - 45%
 * 10/14 - R - 80% - N - 62%
 * 10/15 - R - 80% - N - 57%
 * 10/16 - R - 91% - N - 65%
 * 10/17 - R - 78% - N - 50%
 * 10/18 - R - 66% - N - 33%
 * 10/19 - R - 79% - N - 56%
 * 10/20 - R - 85% - N - 50%
 * 10/21 - R - 92% - N - 90%
 * 10/22 - R - 72% - N - 66%
 * 10/23 - R - 70% - N - 67%
 * 10/24 - R - 61% - N - 55%
 * 10/25 - R - 66% - N - 64%
 * 10/26 - R - 62% - N - 60%
 * 10/27 - R - 90% - N - 84%
 * 10/28 - R - 94% - N - 90%
 * 10/29 - R - 96% - N - 94%
 * 10/30 - R - 98% - N - 96%
 * 10/31 - R - 88% - N - 88%
 * 11/1 - R - 98% - N - 96%
 * 11/2 - R - 99% - N - 99%
 * 11/3 - R - 99% - N - 99%
 * 11/4 - R - 99% - N - 99%
 * 11/5 - R - 99% - N - 99%
 * 11/6 - R - 97% - N - 97%
 * 11/7 - R - 97% - N - 97%
 * 11/8 - R - 99% - N - 99%

PMB Polls
Every Friday in 2016 before Election Night, PMB would release a new poll.
 * 1) 1/1-1/8 - Trump 55, Clinton 38, Misc 18 (Trump +17)
 * 2) 1/15 - Trump 45, Clinton 47, Misc 8 (Clinton +2)
 * 3) 1/22 - Trump 43, Clinton 46, Misc 11 (Clinton +3)
 * 4) 1/29 - Trump 43, Clinton 47 (Clinton +4)
 * 5) 2/5 - Trump 45, Clinton 44 (Trump +1)
 * 6) 2/12 - Trump 50, Clinton 41 (Trump +9)
 * 7) 2/19 - Trump 47, Clinton 43 (Trump +4)
 * 8) 2/26 - Trump 44, Clinton 46 (Clinton +2)
 * 9) 3/4 - Trump 50, Clinton 43 (Trump +7)
 * 10) 3/11 - Trump 52, Clinton 37 (Trump +15)
 * 11) 3/18 - Trump 46, Clinton 47 (Clinton +1)
 * 12) 3/25 - Trump 44, Clinton 44 (Tie)
 * 13) 4/1 - Trump 44, Clinton 43 (Trump +1)
 * 14) 4/8 - Trump 48, Clinton 42 (Trump +6)
 * 15) 4/15 - Trump 49, Clinton 42 (Trump +7)
 * 16) 4/22 - Trump 48, Clinton 42 (Trump +6)
 * 17) 4/29 - Trump 47, Clinton 33 (Trump +14)
 * 18) 5/6 - Trump 51, Clinton 41 (Trump +10)
 * 19) 5/13 - Trump 54, Clinton 38 (Trump +16)
 * 20) 5/20 - Trump 55, Clinton 32 (Trump +23)
 * 21) 5/27 - Trump 57, Clinton 32 (Trump +25)
 * 22) 6/3 - Trump 53, Clinton 28 (Trump +25)
 * 23) 6/10 - Trump 59, Clinton 27 (Trump +32)
 * 24) 6/17 - Trump 50, Clinton 27 (Trump +23)
 * 25) 6/24 - Trump 52, Clinton 33 (Trump +19)
 * 26) 7/1 - Trump 53, Clinton 35 (Trump +18)
 * 27) 7/8 - Trump 52, Clinton 32 (Trump +20)
 * 28) 7/15 - Trump 57, Clinton 31 (Trump +26)
 * 29) 7/22 - Trump 55, Clinton 31 (Trump +24)
 * 30) 7/29 - Trump 60, Clinton 27 (Trump +33)
 * 31) 8/5 - Trump 54, Clinton 30 (Trump +24)
 * 32) 8/12 - Trump 53, Clinton 30 (Trump +23)
 * 33) 8/19 - Trump 50, Clinton 31 (Trump +19)
 * 34) 8/26 - Trump 53, Clinton 32 (Trump +21)
 * 35) 9/2 - Trump 56, Clinton 31 (Trump +25)
 * 36) 9/9 - Trump 54, Clinton 31 (Trump +23)
 * 37) 9/16 - Trump 55, Clinton 30 (Trump +25)
 * 38) 9/23 - Trump 57, Clinton 30 (Trump +27)
 * 39) 9/30 - Trump 62, Clinton 25 (Trump +37)
 * 40) 10/7 - Trump 62, Clinton 26 (Trump +36)
 * 41) 10/14 - Trump 64, Clinton 27 (Trump +37)
 * 42) 10/21 - Trump 67, Clinton 21 (Trump +46)
 * 43) 10/28 - Trump 70, Clinton 18 (Trump +52)
 * 44) 11/4 (final poll) - Trump 76, Clinton 12 (Trump +64)

PMB Debate Poll 1 - Trump 50%, Hillary 22%, Undecided 28% (Trump +28)

VP Debate - Pence 87%, Kaine 6%, Undecided 7% (Pence +81)

PMB Debate Poll 2 - Trump 79%, Hillary 14%, Undecided 7% (Trump +65)

PMB Debate Poll 3 - Trump 90%, Hillary 4%, Undecided 6% (Trump +86)

Here is my Electoral College prediction map:



It is supposed to say Maine's 2nd Congressional District is the darkest red.

Here is the final PMB battleground map:



It is supposed to say Maine's 1st Congressional District is the lightest blue.

NJ is my home state, everyone keeps saying it's a solid blue state, I always see Trump/Pence signs and almost never see Hillary signs. NJ is a toss-up on this map.

My prediction of the popular vote
100% is about 225,778,000.

Turnout will fall to about 51.0%.

Here are the numbers:


 * Donald Trump - 50,739,120 (44.91%)
 * Hillary Clinton - 45,806,853 (40.547%)
 * Gary Johnson - 6,998,602 (6.19%)
 * Jill Stein - 4,497,792 (3.98%)
 * Darrell Castle - 1,745,345 (1.54%)
 * Rocky De La Fuente - 1,388,949 (1.23%)
 * Evan McMullin - 1,277,774 (1.13%)
 * Laurence Kotlikoff - 192,324 (0.17%)
 * Tom Hoefling - 190,858 (0.17%)
 * Mike Maturen - 134,742 (0.12%)

Another theory
You might ask the question: "Do you see the real life polls? Hillary is leading Trump in every one of them!"

Yes, I do see the real polls. And I see much more of it than you do.

I saw something on the news titled:

"Democrats build huge early vote lead in battleground Nevada"

The word "huge" felt like a crippling blow.

However, there are how many more Democrats than Republicans who voted early in the state of Nevada? 6%! 6% isn't much. A huge lead is like a margin of 30% (65% to 35%).

The polls will sample about 12.5% more Democrats (56.25% or let's say about 900 in one poll, or 56.25%) than Republicans. (43.75% or let's say about 700 in one poll)

In an average of polls from RealClearPolitics, Trump is ahead of Hillary in Nevada by +1.5%.

So, the polls, samplings, and early voting imply that Trump won early voting by 16.2% (55.4% Trump to 39.2% Hillary)

And moreover, since Trump voters are more likely to vote than Hillary voters, the actual early voting victory margin for Trump is probably about 20%.

Isn't Hillary more of a person who encourages people to vote early than Trump? Which means Trump would probably win Nevada tonight by a victory margin of about 22.5% of the votes.

I tried searching for a poll where they sampled more Republicans, however all there was were polls that sampled more Democrats.

In the forum, I talked about Trump winning Maine's 2nd Congressional District, as well as Minnesota, Virginia, and Nevada.

Trump will probably win Pennsylvania by about 30 points. That would be an insane blow for the Democratic camp. Even if he does worse in the actual voting, Trump will still carry the state by around 9-10 points.

A vote for Trump is a vote for me, it's a vote for you. It's a vote for the Internet, which has been sent to the UN.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for cancer, it's a vote for ISIS, as Trump will destroy ISIS, Hillary will make ISIS stronger. She'll raise taxes, Trump will lower taxes.

If Hillary's the president, she will make Obamacare bigger, stronger, and more expensive. Trump will repeal and replace Obamacare.

Leave a comment, maybe more.